SATURDAY, SEP 29, 2018: NOTE TO FILE

Voting with Your Feet

The "where to" question

Eric Lee, A-SOCIATED PRESS

TOPICS: ABANDONING INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY, FROM THE WIRES, SYSTEMS SCIENCE, ECOLATES

Abstract: One alternative to working to transform the current, now global, complex society into its opposite is for the few to vote with their feet to form pockets of sustainability to preserve information and recover enough functional behaviors (to counter the behavioral sink we are circling the drain of) to pass on to posterity. Those considering abandoning techno-industrial society will want to consider where to relocate. To manage human demands on Nature's resources, voluntary emigrants from industrial society pick an area having environmental resources (still), one per continent excluding Antarctica to begin with, and vote with their feet to become the majority within the area by buying it (most real estate), and redefine the rules of the game to select for a different outcome than business-as-usual. Voluntary movement, that selects for foresight intelligence, is alternative to continuing the purpose-driven consumer ‘life’ in service of industrial society. For example, in North America, perhaps pick the southernmost county of coastal Oregon, Curry County, 1,988 mi² with a population of about 23 thousand, such that if 15 thousand refugees from industrial society, from anywhere on the planet (0.00016% of current population, or 0.0035% of Americans), were to move there (voluntarily of course), and those there now (who don't like the newcomers) move elsewhere (voluntarily of course) to enjoy (for a time) the money the newcomers were willing to pay for their property, and those who decide to stay and fight, to kill the newcomers (with extreme prejudice of course) are too few to succeed, then Curry County could become 'ecolate', managed per best-guess systems science principles that provide real solutions to the human predicament that all intentional emigrants (who don't get to vote on what could work) would voluntarily agree to before voting with their feet. The county would be divided into three watershed management units (Chetco, Lower Rouge, Sixes) whose borders are not pretend lines and actually mean something in the biophysical world. If 0.65% of Americans decided to occupy the state of Oregon by voting with their feet as intentional eMigrants, a pocket of sustainability could be formed (as a federation of nearly 100 watershed management units) and 1.3% of North Americans could take the Pacific Northwest bioregion (some already live there) to perhaps preserve a functioning complex society and much of the information gathered in the past seven thousands years that relates to our endeavor to understand and learn to live properly on the planet by listening to Nature who has all the answers.

TUCSON (A-P) — Assume global temperature rise exceeds the 2°C agreed upon limit, that tipping points are crossed, and that a temperature rise of 4°C to 5°C occurs before Earth's climate stabilizes at a new equilibrium before global cooling sets in (i.e. assume that all fossil fuel use, everywhere by everyone, doesn't end in five years). Assume a one to two meter raise in sea level in the next hundred years, perhaps peaking at 60 meters in the third millennium. Assume you and your descendants, if any, live in the North America Ecolate. Where should you consider moving to while the moving is good/easy?

What is currently beach front property may not be a good investment, might work for you if you're over 55, but your descendants will have a different view of time unless you are thinking of what legacy you can leave to the seventh generation that follows you. Buying a home that is now three to ten meters above the sea may be considered as homes have limited lifetimes, especially all homes of "conventional" construction.

So in North America, think north where it will be cool enough and west where the population is lower. The Gulf coast will get supercharged hurricanes, while the southern parts, west and east, will be baked by increasingly difficult to tolerate heat, especially when the ACs cannot be powered. Per one academic, think about moving above the 42nd parallel, north of CA, NV, IN, and PA.

Also think about what happens when the lights dim at night or go out, though no one living in the glow wants them to. What will all the people do? Do you want to be among or amid them? Perhaps moving to an area that isn't so bright at night (for now) is to be considered, and then working to lower such glow as there may be, given that we live in a flicker and adapting sooner is better. That excludes the Mississippi River watershed and parts east, hence think north of the 42nd (assuming you are near sea level as going up in elevation is like going north, so for every 1,000 ft you go up, think 300 miles closer to the pole but keeping the sun higher without shortening the daylight hours in winter), and think far west of the teeming millions.

Being just above sea level is to avoid, but it does not follow that being near the ocean and its moderating effect on local climate should be avoided. A cool but Mediterranean climate will rarely be too cold, unlike inland areas, because of the moderating effect of the ocean. This means that if you can't heat your home, dressing warm will be good enough, comfortable enough, unlike inland areas where snow may drift and build up as the months go by as it never gets warm enough to melt the snow enough to stick even to itself, even in the full but low sun of winter.

So think coastal Oregon and above. The south coast of Oregon has only a few points of light at night, from Brookings just north of California to the brighter light of Coos Bay as port and regional Big City, with specks of light at Gold Beach, Port Orford, and Bandon. Fresh water is not in short supply and rainfall supports dry land farming, though most of the area wants to be forest. The natural and sustainable resources in the region depend on managed forestry, agriculture (plant and animal), marine/aquatic resources, and managed hunting and gathering. There is also small-scale solar, wind, and hydro electric production potential to supply up to 50Wh/person/day to provide personal LED lighting and power high-value but low-power information technology, which would include audio devices with earbuds. None of the technology will use enough energy to create a glow. To repeat: the sooner we transition the better for all life on the planet. "Seek out the condition now that will come anyway." —Howard T. Odumref

Transition now, and turn the lights off on your way out.

Brookings is a company town, specifically a lumber company town that since the 1980s has become a retirement town. It is slightly warmer than is typical on the Oregon coast and even coastal northern California due to a micro-climate warming effect (on average there are two days a year with a high of over 90 degrees F., so not as cool as areas above and below is also true). Other coastal towns exist because they have rare access points for boats, other than kayaks/small boats, to take to the sea. Coos Bay is the only major port, one that once had large sailing vessels dock and may again (and may again construct large sailing vessels), and is the transportation hub of the Oregon coast, as well as (currently) providing high-end financial, medical and other services. Oregon east of the Cascades is relatively less overpopulated and for those preferring a dry climate, occupying the Bend area and parts east would leave the center western strip from Medford to Portland that will be the last to deglow.

So should you sell out, liquidate your financial resources wherever else you may be, "vote with your feet" and move to southern coastal Oregon to play house? Should you foresee at some point chuckling, perhaps just a little maniacally while sitting in your hot tub, at the thought of all the poor people (and the rich) in southern California fighting all the poor Arizonans (and the rich) for the "right" to what little water is left in the Colorado River and its reservoirs while thinking how much smarter you were for moving while you still had the time and money?

NO!

If moving to serve self interest is your thought, your motive, then stay where you are. It won't matter if you end up eating others or end up being eaten.

Consider voting with your feet for only one reason: to abandon the now global techno-industrial society, the existing political and economic SYSTEM that is NOT REMOTELY CLOSE TO SUSTAINABLE, and by moving to help create an alternative model, one that actually works as the centuries pass, that makes the existing socio-political economic growther SYSTEM obsolete as it fades into history.

Help develop a 500-year plan. Currently 99+ percent of those living in southern coastal Oregon serve the growth SYSTEM that will collapse, likely in the 21st century, as it will globally. Thinking beyond the next pay check's income or next quarter's unearned income is imperative.

Likely everyone reading this call to vote-with-your-feet has spent their lives serving the SYSTEM, with varying degrees of enthusiasm, that they now question. If you cannot consider the possibility that the SYSTEM you are a product of and have served is pathological, analogous to a metastasizing cancerous tumor of which you are a cancer cell, then stay where you are or move to further your self interest, but don't move to southern Oregon, Oregon, or the Pacific Northwest bioregion as when existing Anthropocene enthusiasts living in the area are outnumbered by intentional eMigrants seeking refuge from industrial society, who favor a foundationally different SYSTEM and work to make it so, then you'll want to leave. So don't come. Cincinnati is a really nice place to live (for a time), far better than backwoods Oregon.

The Cascadia bioregion, as defined by geology and not culture, contains about 75 'ecoregions', 750,000+ sq. mi., within which would be watershed management units, about 700, each composed of nomadic bands, settlements, communities, villages, towns, and where high-energy empowered, cities within the one-fifth of each watershed that humans claim and manage. The sustainable population may be one-tenth that of the early 21st century. Click to enlarge.

 

When satellites can detect no glow from south coastal Oregon (secondary to intentional degrowth), Cincinnati and many other places will still be glowing bright (for a time) to allow for late night shopping at Walmart. Coos Bay has a Walmart, the only one in Coos County or Curry County, built on marshland that was "reclaimed" (filled in), and so now Walmart and other "developments" needs to be reclaimed. If consumers knew their wants from their needs, the consumer society would descend sooner than later. If "sooner" sounds like the worst possible future, don't move to the Pacific Northwest coast.

 

To create the North America Ecolate (one of seven global management units) requires first creating watershed management units, and there will have to be a first one somewhere. Southern coastal Oregon could be ground zero. The southernmost county is Curry County, 1,988 mi² with a population of about 23 thousand, or 56 acres per person, so if 15 thousand refugees from industrial society, from anywhere on the planet (0.00016% of current population, or 0.0035% of Americans), were to move there (voluntarily of course), and those in south coastal Oregon now (who don't like the newcomers) move elsewhere (voluntarily of course) to enjoy (for a time) the money the newcomers were willing to pay for their property, and those who decide to stay and fight, to kill the newcomers (with extreme prejudice of course) are too few to succeed, then Curry County could become 'ecolate', managed per ecolate systems science principles that provide real solutions to the human predicament. The county would be divided into three watershed management units (Chetco, Lower Rouge, Sixes) whose borders are not pretend lines and actually mean something in the biophysical world.

At the same time, Coos County, 1,806 mi² with a population of about 63 thousand, or 18 acres/person, could also be occupied. The slightly smaller area, higher population, and higher cost of property means more intentional eMigrants would have to move there to become a majority, so it could take longer to take back the two watersheds (Coos, Coquille) from the Anthropocene empire-building enthusiasts in the county and manage the watersheds per ecolate principles.

The first five watershed management units would be a start, perhaps the start of the United Federation of Watersheds of Earth (to occupy both Curry and Coos counties, 86,000 population, 0.0005% of current global population, or 0.013% of Americans would have to eMigrate assuming less than one percent of current occupiers are willing to deglow). To occupy the state of Oregon (over half of the population lives in the Portland metro area), more eMigrants would have to occupy more watersheds, about ninety, which could be done if 0.03% of humans (0.65% of Americans) decided to occupy the state by voting with their feet as intentional eMigrants.

At some point, eMigrants could number in the single digit range, and the Pacific Northwest, from northern California to British Columbia and a bit of Alaska, could be occupied and be Federation.

The high coastal numbers correspond to high environmental productivity, e.g. shellfish, salmon, game, in a moderated Mediterranean climate and temperate rainforest cool in summer and rarely freezing in winter near the coast.

The Coquille and Tututni (seven bands in lower Rogue River) were more linguistically and culturally related than to the Coos, and the boundary with the Coos was marked to warn each to not make incursions to extract resources claimed by others.

The Hanis Coos and Miluk Coos languages shared about half of their vocabulary, but differed grammatically, and were as different as Dutch and German. The property I legally own, as it was legally taken from the Miluk Coos, may not be part of the Coos Watershed's 20 percent claimed by humans, so it will be 'owned' by the corvids, the apex social species in the area outside the current 95 percent claimed by humans apart from the bay which is claimed by seal.

 

Coos and Curry counties first, then east to Josephine and Jackson counties to complete the Middle Rogue and Upper Rogue and add the Illinois and Applegate watersheds. County lines are in faint red. Initially a focus on watersheds in Oregon is needed until a majority of EcoCivil (Ecolate Civilization humans) occupy the state, so the Smith and Kalamath would be added to the Cascadia Bioregion later. Douglas county completes the Coquille watershed and adds the Umpqua and Siltcoos. The watershed along the coast to the north would be added next up to Canada to focus on USA watersheds initially, then go eastward. Canadians would also start on the coast and go east as nation-states fade away (or collapse). Alaskans can occupy the northern part of the Pacific Northwest Bioregion.

Prior occupancy of the bioregion, beginning 16,000 years ago, led to prosperous permanent villages in the coastal temperate rainforest region giving rise to complex societies and empire-building as happened elsewhere. red cedar sea-going canoes enabled resource gathering from a broad enough area to allow for settled villages and peaceful trade. But conflict led to fortified villages as conflicts involve winners and losers, and winners are rewarded by the contingencies of success to repeat the pattern, to become conquerors who engage in empire-building as usual. Flotillas of dozens of canoes holding up to 60 warriors each could reach distant shores and engage in Viking-like exploitation of human resources and their material wealth. A Federation of Watersheds, also empowered by agricultural settlements, would define the "rules of the game" to disallow empire-building enforced by a shared and mobile militia such that if any watershed is attacked, all other watersheds would send a small defensive force to prevent successful conquest that would otherwise select for empire-building. A Pax Federation would allow coastal and inland watersheds to trade (based on emdollar environmental accounting) using the militia during peacetime to transport goods, and for seasonal migrant labor travel. A postal service would allow for information exchange.

 

To secure the Pacific Northwest once the coast is occupied, occupy most of the watersheds in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia so eMigrants are the majority and run state/province government before fully transitioning to Federation policies and form of government (i.e. naturocracy). Each watershed management unit is to stockpile dry food with a 50-year shelf-life and building materials for refugee shelters for ten times the number of people as the watershed can sustainably support. Refugees will agree to not reproduce at will and agree to live an ecolate life of enough within limits. In return they may pass on their memes to posterity and avoid dying a Malthusian death. That's the deal, and it is not, as living in industrial society is, a Faustian bargain (we live a wonderful life, free to shop at Walmart 24/7, but our descendants end up eating each other). Alternative is the possibility that systems science guess-then-test works.

If we fail to understand the complex, powerful and remorseless systems dynamic that we are captured by, that is dragging us along, that automatically thwarts all attempts to stop it, then we are doomed to go with it and hit the wall of biophysical limits we now feel driven to deny. Those who protest unsustainable denial, who refuse to further serve the Growth's Mandate SYSTEM, can but vote with their feet and work to create a different model of a just and functional complex society with minimal pathology, one that can last and evolve as the millennia go by.

As for where, within other ecolates (excluding Antarctica), the first watershed management units should be formed, let a consensus emerge among residents of existing nation-states in the ecolate. Then let the ecolate people move, vote with their feet, and find refuge from the UNSUSTAINABLE HEGEMON they, through no fault of their own, happened to have been born into.

World Bioregions

Seven Ecolates and 30 Sublates (sub-ecolates)


(In order of hominin occupancy)

  1. Africa

    1. Eastern Africa
    2. Middle Africa
    3. Southern Africa
    4. Western Africa
    5. Northern Africa
    6. Malagasy

  2. Asia

    1. Western Asia (Middle East)
    2. Central Asia
    3. Northern Asia
    4. Eastern Asia
    5. South-eastern Asia
    6. Southern Asia

  3. Europe

    1. Eastern Europe
    2. Southern Europe
    3. Northern Europe
    4. Western Europe

  4. Oceania

    1. Melanesia
    2. Australis (from terra australis that became Australia, a nation-state name)
    3. Micronesia
    4. Polynesia
    5. Zealandia

  5. North America

    (including Northern America as superlate, or supersublate, with three sublates)

    1. West Northern America
    2. Middle Northern America (continental divide to Gulf Coast/Mississippi River/Lake Michigan/Hudson Bay trough)
    3. East Northern America
    4. Central America (Yucatan Peninsula to South America)
    5. Caribbean

  6. South America

    1. Western South America
    2. Northeast South America
    3. Eastern South America
    4. Southeast South America

  7. Antarctica

Ecolates and sublates as managed commons would contain bioregional management subSYSTEMs, but management would be mainly based on globally defined and applied limits to watershed development and interwatershed trade to maximize watershed level diversity (of humans and Nature) within biophysical limits to growth. Limits to love and understanding would not be enforced. Population management would be a watershed level affair as solving one's population mismanagement issues involving livestock, pets, or humans by exporting them would be disallowed as empire-building must be. The ability to pollute (export air and water toxins) would be limited (e.g. biomass smoke) or disallowed (e.g. biocides, ecocides). Unsustainable extraction of resources for trade would be disallowed. Limits would apply equitably to all watershed management units. The Federation of Watersheds would not micromanage human behavior, but set limits to the impact of watershed-level managed complex societies and enforce the limits to maintain a viable equilibrium between Man’s demands and Nature’s resources.

 

If you live in the glow, then you also live in the flicker. Consider the possibility of moving.

 

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